CAN A “GLOBAL DAY OF CLIMATE ACTION” AFFECT COP15?

Bill McKibben – author, educator and founder of the 350.org movement – gave a moving presentation at the Victoria University of Wellington on May 1 as a part of his whirlwind international tour. He is promoting the use of strategic public demonstrations/actions to educate and motivate entrenched politicians about their enormous responsibilities regarding climate change-related issues. It is hoped that this enlightened understanding will enable them to enact decisive policies.

Below is McKibben’s explanation of 350.org in 350 seconds (from August 2008):



Through a grassroots approach, McKibben along with others – such as Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Dr. James Hansen, David Suzuki, George Monbiot, Van Jones, Vandana Shiva and many more – are spreading the word about 350.org and the “Global Day of Climate Action” on October 24, 2009.

The Conference of the Parties 15 (COP15) in Copenhagen, Denmark, is just seven months away. It is at this crucial 11-day meeting that the international framework to succeed the Kyoto Protocol will be hammered out by a majority of the world's leaders. More than simply a framework, however, a growing number of scientists, politicians and economists argue that this is the last opportunity we all have to set in place mechanisms that may mitigate a global average temperature increase of 2˚C or more. (Mark Lynas, based on sound scientific research, gives a detailed and alarming account of what the implications are for human survival if the temperature rises to 2˚C or more in his book Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet.)

350.org is targeting local actions to effect local change; but ultimately, its aims are to have a global result. The plan is to leverage the cumulative message into meaningful political change. As of today, there are people from 52 countries participating.

Below are five key takeaways from McKibben's Wellington presentation and additional research supporting his arguments:

1. “Nothing about global warming is a future problem”

Though this point may seem obvious to some, many are unaware of the current changes taking place. No longer can we think of climate change mitigation as a problem for the future. It is not about saving the world for our children or grandchildren – the effects of climate change can already be seen – it is about ensuring that we who are alive today halt and/or drastically decrease the activities that lead to increased levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs).

On April 24, Al Gore testified before the House Subcommittee on Energy and Environment in support of the American Clean Energy and Security Act 2009. His speech outlines numerous examples of current ecological changes – some on time scales much quicker than previously estimated.



2. A lack of “moral mathematics” leads to climate injustice

Several years ago while in Bangladesh, McKibben fell victim to Dengue fever from a mosquito bite. He was not alone; thousands of Bangladeshi were also taken ill. In between the shivers that are a result of Dengue fever, he witnessed first hand the great injustice brought upon these people. In spite of Bangladesh being a country with approximately 140 million people, the per-capita carbon footprint does not even register due to the minuscule amounts released. By contrast, the US has a little more than twice Bangladesh’s population, yet produces about one quarter of the world's total GHG emissions. It quickly became apparent to McKibben that the US – which includes the habits and luxuries of individual Americans – are directly responsible for one in every four of those Bangladeshi suffering from Dengue fever. Some of those Bangladeshi did not recover – their deaths are on our hands, whether or not we choose to recognize and acknowledge it.

Neither Bangladesh as a country, nor any Bangladeshi on the individual level caused the sea level to rise and thus create a habitat which allowed mosquitoes carrying Dengue fever to flourish. Yet, as a sad and unjust reality, it is usually those who produce the least emissions who will first be affected by the ramifications of climate change.

An example of climate injustice can also be seen in the coastal erosion happening in Senegal today. This is another country whose per-capita carbon footprint pales in comparison to that of the US, EU and Japan.

3. “Things won't happen by addition – they have to happen by multiplication”

Small, individual steps – such as changing out incandescent bulbs with compact florescent lamps (CFLs) – may seem like a good place to start for many people awakening to the urgency of climate change (and certainly, these steps should be taken), but even when these efforts are added up, they do not come close to the level of change that is necessary. Unfortunately, the sheer magnitude and speed in which climate change mitigation needs to happen requires more than just voluntary effort on the part of individuals. The multiplication factor that McKibben argues for is mandated change, i.e. through laws and regulations on both the national and international level.

Greg Craven, an inspired and relentless Corvallis, Oregon high school science teacher – who spent the better part of a year researching and writing the video How It All Ends (which eventually went viral on YouTube with over 6.5 million views), later created the non-profit organization Manpollo Project, and is now finishing his book What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate, which is due to come out this July – put forth a sound argument for climate change to be addressed from a risk management perspective. As a part of his research and numerous debates about climate change, he too found that drastic political change is one of, if not the most important factors in mitigating the worst aspects of climate change – or as he prefers to call it: global climate destabilization.

Below is Craven’s viral video:



4. “Devotion or fear”

McKibben felt strongly that there are two things that will motivate politicians: devotion or fear. Even if oversimplifying the matter, politicians are by definition political. So in order to change the hearts and minds of the politicians who are absolutely essential for the creation of national policy development – as well as the international framework that is to be hopefully created in December at the COP15 – a slightly Machiavellian approach was recommended. Given the speed at which the great majority of scientists are seeing changes in the Arctic, Antarctic and other areas, it seems that anything less than a strong, far-reaching approach will not work.

5. “350 parts per million (ppm) is the most important number in the world – it's the bottom line for the earth”

In light of the fact that the latest measurements from the Mauna Loa Observatory show that we’ve already overshot the bottom line by 37 ppm last year – and global emissions continue to rise – this target number of 350 ppm is looking to be increasingly difficult to attain without potentially disruptive measures. Even the fourth IPCC report and the Stern Review seem too conservative since factors such as positive feedback mechanisms were not taken into consideration at the time of the reports being published.

The COP15 starts just six weeks after 350.org’s Global Day of Climate Action. Will these and other calls to action be enough to convince politicians and bureaucrats that it's time to step-up with real, meaningful policies that demonstrate a true understanding that the world's economies are, in fact, a subset of the world's ecology? I certainly hope so.