ARE THERE STILL PRISTINE WATERS LEFT IN THE WORLD?

The short answer is yes; and they're located in the southern Pacific Ocean.

For six weeks – from March to May of this year – Dr. Enric Sala led a team of 12 scientists and five videographers to "study the last healthy, undisturbed places in the ocean." The marine expedition was through five of the southern Line Islands (or Equatorial Islands) in the Republic of Kiribati: Flint, Vostok, Starbuck, Malden and Caroline islands. These islands are located approximately 3,200 kilometres (2,000 miles) south of Hawai‘i.

His team studied and documented every aspect of the marine life surrounding these islands’ shores: water quality, fish populations, predator populations, as well as the health and diversity of the coral reef.

This National Geographic project called Ocean Now, is the latest in Dr. Sala's exploration of untouched marine ecosystems: he previously led other expeditions that studied the northern Line Islands in 2005 and 2007, which had a range of conditions from degraded to pristine waters.

It was during the latter expedition that Dr. Sala first discovered the condition of the Kingman Reef, which is believed to be one of the last intact marine environments undamaged by humankind.

The website PristineSeas.org developed by Dr. Sala, gives a good idea of how the Kingman Reef compares to other areas around the world such as the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument), Seychelles, Cuba, Kiritimati, etc.

The discovery of the Kingman Reef’s unspoiled condition is the reason why he returned two years later to further study the pristine ecosystem of the southern Line Islands.

These waters, as Dr. Sala explained, are “like the instruction manual for how the ocean works.” The Ocean Now expedition to the untouched southern Line Islands “is very different from previous research expeditions in the sense that we are studying an ecological machine that is complete and fully functional.”

The New York Times published an article that spoke to some of the reasons why the discovery of the Line Islands’ pristine marine ecosystem is so important for our understanding of how we may be able to better protect it and other areas in the future.

When asked why he was doing this expedition, Dr. Sala replied:

One of our biggest hopes is to inspire ocean lovers – and people who don’t know they are ocean lovers yet – to be stewards of our ocean. To bring more people and convince their policymakers to replicate this success story to increase the number of protected areas in the ocean. So that the ocean is at least as protected as the land.

In 2008, the Republic of Kiribati designated the area surrounding the Line Islands a protected marine reserve. Similar to the way in which the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument became protected in 2006.

Though the number of marine protected areas is few in comparison to their land-based equivalents, expeditions such as Ocean Now help to elevate the awareness level and increase the knowledge base so that our ocean ecosystems are hopefully able to recover from the decades of degradation.

HOW CAN ISLAND(ER)S MAXIMIZE THE "WILD CARD"?

Bill McKibben said in a May 1, 2009 presentation in Wellington that "the existence of the internet is the real 'wild card' in sparking an international movement, but more importantly, in motivating our most entrenched politicians who have a vested interest in the status quo [i.e. to not enact policies that will aid in the mitigation of climate change]."

I would also add that the increasing global accessibility to the internet, as well as the user-friendly, interactive web 2.0 capabilities have the potential to drastically raise the awareness level of even those who are not inclined to participate in climate change-related discussions, demonstrations or protests.

The following documentary An Uncertain Future is just one example of how islanders – in this case Tulun [Carteret], Tinputz and Buka youth from Papua New Guinea – are utilizing the internet and other newly-learned media skills to express themselves and advocate for greater, more meaningful action on climate change.

There is some harrowing information presented:

The Carteret [Tulun] atoll is less than ten square hectares [roughly 24 acres] of land and reef, with the maximum height of 1.2 meters [3 feet 11 inches] above sea level.

Sixty percent of the island has been eroded – destroyed by the sea over the last ten years – and scientists believe that between 2015 and 2020, this group of islands will be beneath the sea.

There is also a sad song sung in the documentary with lyrics that are simple yet touching – showing their deep attachment to the land that will soon be taken back by the sea:

When I was far away from home

I heard the news that my island

has been eroded by the rising sea.

Oh my lovely homeland

in the past you were good

but now you are being eroded

by the rising sea.

From the creation of another islander – this time an Englishman – is a blog entitled Journey to the Sinking Land, which documents the author's personal experiences on Tulun. He is witness to the first wave of climate change refugees as they move from their home islands to Tinputz on Bougainville Island.

100 MONTHS TO SAVE THE WORLD?

One hundred months…3,042 days…73,008 hours…

Does this seem too far off into the future to think about?

I certainly hope not; however, with quarterly results and short-term planning still continuing to hold importance in (nearly?) all business sectors, and the need for politicians to act in a way that will ensure re-election, 100 months may indeed, seem to be too far off into the future for many...

Be that as it may, things are starting to shift: more leaders are starting to lead through bolder systems-thinking approaches and long-term planning – which extends their responsibilities and accountabilities well beyond the confines of their businesses and electorates.

But is this shifting mindset of our leaders happening fast enough?

Andrew Simms – policy director of the United Kingdom-based New Economics Foundation, environmental activist, author (latest book: Ecological Debt: Global Warming and the Wealth of Nations) and columnist for the Guardian newspaper – would argue “no.” He has come to recognize the sense of urgency that is needed, and hence, has begun a countdown in his monthly column "100 Months to Save the World."

He begins his first column by writing:

If you shout “fire” in a crowded theatre, when there is none, you understand that you might be arrested for irresponsible behaviour and breach of the peace. But from today, I smell smoke, I see flames and I think it is time to shout. I don't want you to panic, but I do think it would be a good idea to form an orderly queue to leave the building.

Because in just 100 months' time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change. That said, among people working on global warming, there are countless models, scenarios, and different iterations of all those models and scenarios. So, let us be clear from the outset about exactly what we mean.

The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere today, the most prevalent greenhouse gas, is the highest it has been for the past 650,000 years. In the space of just 250 years, as a result of the coal-fired Industrial Revolution, and changes to land use such as the growth of cities and the felling of forests, we have released, cumulatively, more than 1,800bn tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Currently, approximately 1,000 tonnes of CO2 are released into the Earth's atmosphere every second, due to human activity. Greenhouse gases trap incoming solar radiation, warming the atmosphere. When these gases accumulate beyond a certain level – often termed a "tipping point" – global warming will accelerate, potentially beyond control.

What I find particularly interesting about the columns – aside from his astute observations and good writing – are the comments that people post in response. There seem to be some extremely disgruntled people who take personal offense to Simms writing that the science community strongly suggests that we change our lifestyles in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Connected to the column is the onehundredmonths.org website, which amongst other things has a host of great partner websites that have also recognized the need for urgency on climate change (such as Islands First, Global Canopy Programme, Road to Copenhagen 2009, The Green Belt Movement and many others).

The onehundredmonths.org website has a link to the technical explanation behind the 100 months timeline:

We calculate that 100 months from 1 August 2008, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will begin to exceed a point whereby it is no longer likely we will be able to avert potentially irreversible climate change. 'Likely' in this context refers to the definition of risk used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to mean that, at that particular level of greenhouse gas concentration, there is only a 66 - 90 per cent chance of global average surface temperatures stabilising at 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Once this concentration is exceeded, it becomes more and more likely that we will overshoot a 2º C level of warming. This is the maximum acceptable level of temperature rise agreed by the European Union and others as necessary to retain reasonable confidence of preventing uncontrollable and ultimately catastrophic warming. We also believe this calculation to be conservative. The reasons why and the assumptions behind our conclusion are detailed below.

If you would like to learn more about the technical reasons and assumptions that lead to onehundredmonths.org’s conclusions read it here (PDF).

And just in case you were wondering, May 2009 is month 91 on the countdown to December 2016…

CAN A “GLOBAL DAY OF CLIMATE ACTION” AFFECT COP15?

Bill McKibben – author, educator and founder of the 350.org movement – gave a moving presentation at the Victoria University of Wellington on May 1 as a part of his whirlwind international tour. He is promoting the use of strategic public demonstrations/actions to educate and motivate entrenched politicians about their enormous responsibilities regarding climate change-related issues. It is hoped that this enlightened understanding will enable them to enact decisive policies.

Below is McKibben’s explanation of 350.org in 350 seconds (from August 2008):



Through a grassroots approach, McKibben along with others – such as Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Dr. James Hansen, David Suzuki, George Monbiot, Van Jones, Vandana Shiva and many more – are spreading the word about 350.org and the “Global Day of Climate Action” on October 24, 2009.

The Conference of the Parties 15 (COP15) in Copenhagen, Denmark, is just seven months away. It is at this crucial 11-day meeting that the international framework to succeed the Kyoto Protocol will be hammered out by a majority of the world's leaders. More than simply a framework, however, a growing number of scientists, politicians and economists argue that this is the last opportunity we all have to set in place mechanisms that may mitigate a global average temperature increase of 2˚C or more. (Mark Lynas, based on sound scientific research, gives a detailed and alarming account of what the implications are for human survival if the temperature rises to 2˚C or more in his book Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet.)

350.org is targeting local actions to effect local change; but ultimately, its aims are to have a global result. The plan is to leverage the cumulative message into meaningful political change. As of today, there are people from 52 countries participating.

Below are five key takeaways from McKibben's Wellington presentation and additional research supporting his arguments:

1. “Nothing about global warming is a future problem”

Though this point may seem obvious to some, many are unaware of the current changes taking place. No longer can we think of climate change mitigation as a problem for the future. It is not about saving the world for our children or grandchildren – the effects of climate change can already be seen – it is about ensuring that we who are alive today halt and/or drastically decrease the activities that lead to increased levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs).

On April 24, Al Gore testified before the House Subcommittee on Energy and Environment in support of the American Clean Energy and Security Act 2009. His speech outlines numerous examples of current ecological changes – some on time scales much quicker than previously estimated.



2. A lack of “moral mathematics” leads to climate injustice

Several years ago while in Bangladesh, McKibben fell victim to Dengue fever from a mosquito bite. He was not alone; thousands of Bangladeshi were also taken ill. In between the shivers that are a result of Dengue fever, he witnessed first hand the great injustice brought upon these people. In spite of Bangladesh being a country with approximately 140 million people, the per-capita carbon footprint does not even register due to the minuscule amounts released. By contrast, the US has a little more than twice Bangladesh’s population, yet produces about one quarter of the world's total GHG emissions. It quickly became apparent to McKibben that the US – which includes the habits and luxuries of individual Americans – are directly responsible for one in every four of those Bangladeshi suffering from Dengue fever. Some of those Bangladeshi did not recover – their deaths are on our hands, whether or not we choose to recognize and acknowledge it.

Neither Bangladesh as a country, nor any Bangladeshi on the individual level caused the sea level to rise and thus create a habitat which allowed mosquitoes carrying Dengue fever to flourish. Yet, as a sad and unjust reality, it is usually those who produce the least emissions who will first be affected by the ramifications of climate change.

An example of climate injustice can also be seen in the coastal erosion happening in Senegal today. This is another country whose per-capita carbon footprint pales in comparison to that of the US, EU and Japan.

3. “Things won't happen by addition – they have to happen by multiplication”

Small, individual steps – such as changing out incandescent bulbs with compact florescent lamps (CFLs) – may seem like a good place to start for many people awakening to the urgency of climate change (and certainly, these steps should be taken), but even when these efforts are added up, they do not come close to the level of change that is necessary. Unfortunately, the sheer magnitude and speed in which climate change mitigation needs to happen requires more than just voluntary effort on the part of individuals. The multiplication factor that McKibben argues for is mandated change, i.e. through laws and regulations on both the national and international level.

Greg Craven, an inspired and relentless Corvallis, Oregon high school science teacher – who spent the better part of a year researching and writing the video How It All Ends (which eventually went viral on YouTube with over 6.5 million views), later created the non-profit organization Manpollo Project, and is now finishing his book What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate, which is due to come out this July – put forth a sound argument for climate change to be addressed from a risk management perspective. As a part of his research and numerous debates about climate change, he too found that drastic political change is one of, if not the most important factors in mitigating the worst aspects of climate change – or as he prefers to call it: global climate destabilization.

Below is Craven’s viral video:



4. “Devotion or fear”

McKibben felt strongly that there are two things that will motivate politicians: devotion or fear. Even if oversimplifying the matter, politicians are by definition political. So in order to change the hearts and minds of the politicians who are absolutely essential for the creation of national policy development – as well as the international framework that is to be hopefully created in December at the COP15 – a slightly Machiavellian approach was recommended. Given the speed at which the great majority of scientists are seeing changes in the Arctic, Antarctic and other areas, it seems that anything less than a strong, far-reaching approach will not work.

5. “350 parts per million (ppm) is the most important number in the world – it's the bottom line for the earth”

In light of the fact that the latest measurements from the Mauna Loa Observatory show that we’ve already overshot the bottom line by 37 ppm last year – and global emissions continue to rise – this target number of 350 ppm is looking to be increasingly difficult to attain without potentially disruptive measures. Even the fourth IPCC report and the Stern Review seem too conservative since factors such as positive feedback mechanisms were not taken into consideration at the time of the reports being published.

The COP15 starts just six weeks after 350.org’s Global Day of Climate Action. Will these and other calls to action be enough to convince politicians and bureaucrats that it's time to step-up with real, meaningful policies that demonstrate a true understanding that the world's economies are, in fact, a subset of the world's ecology? I certainly hope so.

EARTH - THE DOCUMENTARY

Prior to researching the debate around offsetting my automobile and airplane emissions, I sat down to watch the documentary Earth – to learn and be inspired by the amazingly beautiful planet and its inhabitants whom we are fighting to keep in existence (along, of course, with the survival of the human species). As you can see in the trailer below, it was marketed to coincide with this year’s Earth Day, and thus, I thought it an appropriate follow-up to my previous posting about the importance of April 22.

As I watched the DVD, not only was I moved by the cinematography, but also by the poetic words spoken throughout. I have taken some of those words and reproduced them down below. I hope they remind us to always keep an eye on the bigger picture that is earth.

1 minute: “Of all the planets in our universe, there is only one we know that can support life. Just the right distance from its sun, with a perfect climate – it’s been called the ‘lucky planet.’”

2 minute: “All life on earth is built on chance and powered by the sun. But the delicate balances of our world are faltering as the planet struggles to support our growing demands. This is the time to take stalk of what we have, and what we stand to lose. We follow a year on earth, joining our fellow creatures as they battle to raise their young in a world that is rapidly changing.”

13 minute: “There are as many trees here [in the taiga forests] as in all the world’s rainforests combined: one third of all the trees on earth. As spring creeps from the south, the taiga is unveiled. It’s known that this forest produces so much oxygen that it refreshes the atmosphere of the entire planet.”

22 minute: “What will the rest of the year hold for our planet’s latest recruits?”

24 minute: “Here [in the tropics] the sun shines for 12 hours a day, everyday of the year. This is what allows the jungle to grow unchecked and support so much life. Rainforests now cover a third of what it once did – a mere three percent of our planet’s surface. And yet, it contains more than half of all the animals and plants on earth.”

29 minute: “Three percent of our planet, 50 percent of its plants and animals – nowhere is there more at stake. These tropical forests enjoy 12 hours of sunshine all year round, but they also need lots of rainfall. As weather patterns change, there are already signs that these forests are starting to dry.”

30 minute: “Deserts cover one third of the land’s surface on planet earth – and they’re getting bigger every year. This is a land where only few can survive – only a special few. And the challenges are becoming greater than ever.”

36 minute: “Where dust meets water, the march of the deserts is halted. Sand dunes give way to prairies and savannah. Grass is a great unsung hero of our planet: it keeps deserts in check, and fuels many of earth’s great spectacles.”

38 minute: “Everyday on wide open plains the world over, a timeless ritual plays itself out: the drama of hunter and hunted. This is the circle of life, that most of us – in our urban lives – have lost touch with."

47 minute: “The sun that scorches the deserts also brings water to the land. As it beats down on tropical seas, moisture rises from the warming oceans powering our global weather system. Moist winds from the Indian Ocean sweep north towards the Himalayas; as the air rises, so it cools and the water falls as snow."

53 minute: “The sun melts the snow and the waters go on their way again – a start of their long journey back to the oceans. This is the great unending cycle: sunlight and fresh water bringing life to every corner of planet earth.”

55 minute: “For generations humans and animals alike have come to depend on the great rivers and their seemingly endless flow.”

61 minute: “Like the elephants, these waters have travelled great distances to reach here. And all along the way their flow is threatened by extractions for towns and farmland. In its long life, the calf will make this journey many times. Whether the flood will always arrive is far from certain.”

62 minute: “The seasonal cycle that drives the lives of elephants on land, is just as important in the ocean."

64 minute: “To find food, she [sperm whale] will have to lead her calf on an epic 4,000-mile journey to richer feeding grounds in the southern extremes of our planet. This is the longest migration by any marine animal and it depends entirely upon a healthy ocean all along the way.”

67 minute: “Strong winds and currents draw nutrients up from the depths and life blooms wherever the sun’s rays can penetrate.”

70 minute: “These magnificent predators [sharks] – at the very top of the food chain – are a vital part of a healthy ocean, and yet we slaughter almost 100 million of them every year. There populations are in free fall.”

72 minute: “Glacial melt waters pour from the land, mix with the sea and speed up the thaw. Each year, as the climate warms, there is less and less ice in the arctic. This is a disaster for polar bears: without a solid platform, they struggle to hunt the seals they need to survive.”

78 minute: “These whales, as most of the life in Antarctica, ultimately depend on krill. Without it, the far south would be almost deserted; but krill depend on ice – and ice is in decline.”

89 minute: “The polar bear has become an emblem for the state of our planet – and for all the creatures who are struggling to live along side us. Finally, we’ve begun to understand how precarious it is – the state of our once ‘lucky planet.’ If we are to go on sharing earth with such a rich variety of life, and preserve its fragile balance for our own children, now more than ever – it is in our hands.”